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    Senior Member Random$$Slots's Avatar
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    Question IGT Adventure to Never Isle - Treehouse Progressive Odds

    I was watching a video from Dianaevoni of a IGT's Adventure to Never Isle - Treehouse progressive bonus
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTceRYqfMGE

    It struck me that all four bonus levels eventually had 2 gems before Diana picked a gem to make a matching 3-gem win. At first I thought that this was just the way the game worked - build up the suspense, even though the win level was predetermined. I've watched two such Treehouse progressive videos and both did the same thing - each progressive level eventually had 2 gems until the 9th pick determined the progressive win level. The odds of having to pick 9 times before you determine your win level just seemed too remote.

    But, as Shamus pointed out, all the gems are revealed (very briefly), so the progressive win level is not predetermined - it is, in other words, up to the player's picking luck.

    This observation got me to wondering. First, what are the odds of winning the top progressive prize? Second, what are the odds of having to pick 9 times to finally determine which progressive you won?

    So, I did a little simulation and discovered the following (assuming the number of gems of each type are always the same as that shown in the video):

    The approximate odds for winning the:
    Top progressive prize = 1 in 22
    3rd highest prize = 1 in 9
    2nd highest prize = 1 in 3
    Bottom prize = 1 in 2

    The odds of having to pick 9 times before you finally determine which prize you've won is 1 in 22. On the flip side, the odds of finding out your prize after just 3 picks is about 1 in 19. The most likely number of picks you'd make before knowing your prize is six picks (about a quarter of the time).

    The odds of duplicating an experience like Diana had, where one wins the top prize on the 9th pick, is about 1 in 264.
    Last edited by Random$$Slots; 07-02-2014 at 07:49 PM.
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